US Election Stakes: What a Trump Victory Could Mean for America’s Economy and Global Order
With the US presidential election just days away, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Former President Donald Trump is vying for a comeback, facing off against Vice President Kamala Harris in a race that has captivated the world. The economic and geopolitical ramifications of this election are immense, with Trump’s proposed policies representing a sharp pivot from current approaches. From trade tariffs to energy policies and foreign alliances, Trump’s proposed agenda could shape America’s role in the world and have lasting effects on the global economy.
Trump’s Economic Agenda: A Return to Trade Tariffs
One of the most controversial elements of Trump’s economic strategy is his proposed reimplementation of tariffs on foreign imports. During his campaign, Trump has pledged to enact a universal tariff ranging from 10% to 20% on all imports, with particularly high tariffs on Chinese goods, potentially reaching 60%. His campaign claims that such tariffs would protect American jobs and incentivize domestic production, reducing reliance on foreign-made goods. Trump believes this shift would lower inflation and bring down the cost of living by stimulating American manufacturing.
Yet, economists have raised concerns about the effectiveness of blanket tariffs. Critics argue that previous tariff increases led to rising costs for American businesses and consumers, as many imported goods are essential for industries. While Trump maintains that foreign producers will absorb these costs, opponents believe that higher prices may pass on to consumers, potentially exacerbating inflationary pressures rather than alleviating them.
Tax Cuts and Economic Growth Plans
Another focal point of Trump’s campaign is tax reform. He has vowed to restore and expand the tax cuts enacted during his first term, which lowered corporate tax rates to 21%. His new proposal aims to reduce the corporate tax rate even further to 15%, which he argues would spur investment and job creation. Additionally, Trump plans to eliminate taxes on tips and Social Security benefits, believing these measures will increase disposable income and stimulate consumer spending.
According to estimates, however, these tax cuts could add $5.8 trillion to the national debt over the next decade, raising concerns about long-term economic stability. Critics contend that such tax cuts may primarily benefit corporations and high-income earners, potentially widening the income gap. Trump’s stance on student debt relief is another point of contrast. Unlike President Biden, who attempted widespread debt relief, Trump has consistently opposed forgiving student loans, advocating instead for individual responsibility in managing debt.
Energy Policies and the Push for Lower Costs
Trump has made energy policy a central part of his economic plan, promising to cut energy costs in half within his first year in office. He has pledged to expand domestic oil and gas production by reducing regulatory restrictions, stating that an increase in domestic energy supply will stabilize prices. Trump claims he can lower gas prices to below $2 per gallon through an emergency declaration aimed at bolstering domestic production.
While energy experts agree that the President can influence regulatory policies, they also note that global oil prices depend on international factors beyond US control. Furthermore, the environmental implications of ramping up fossil fuel production may clash with the Biden administration’s climate-focused agenda, leading to potential pushback from environmental groups.
Global Implications: Shifts in Foreign Policy and Security
Trump’s foreign policy views have been among the most contentious in recent American history. His criticism of NATO and other alliances signals a potential shift in the US’s approach to global security. He has expressed doubts about NATO’s collective defense commitment, Article 5, and has threatened to reduce the US’s financial and military contributions to the alliance, should he believe NATO allies are not paying their fair share. This stance has led some to question the future of the alliance, which has been a cornerstone of Western security since World War II.
If Trump were to win, he has suggested cutting back support for Ukraine in its conflict with Russia, urging Kyiv to pursue peace under Moscow’s terms. This would be a significant deviation from the Biden administration’s policy of extensive financial and military support for Ukraine. Critics worry that reducing aid could weaken Ukraine’s position and signal a US withdrawal from defending democratic principles abroad, potentially emboldening authoritarian regimes.
Immigration Reform and Deportation Policies
Trump’s stance on immigration also presents a sharp departure from current policies. He and his running mate, JD Vance, have proposed what they describe as the largest deportation effort in US history, aimed at undocumented immigrants. They argue that reducing the labor pool would drive up wages for domestic workers, potentially lowering costs for housing and goods as supply and demand adjust.
However, economists argue that the connection between undocumented immigration and housing prices is complex. Many warn that mass deportations could lead to labor shortages in industries that rely on immigrant labor, such as agriculture, hospitality, and construction. Additionally, Trump’s plan to end birthright citizenship could have long-term implications for immigrant communities, particularly among South Asian populations in the US.
What’s at Stake?
The outcome of the election will significantly impact both America’s economic trajectory and its role in the global order. Trump’s proposals offer a vision of economic nationalism focused on domestic growth, yet his aggressive tariffs, energy policies, and immigration reforms raise questions about their potential unintended consequences.
On the global stage, a Trump presidency could shift alliances, alter the balance of power, and redefine America’s relationships with allies and adversaries alike. Whether this vision aligns with the interests of American citizens and the international community remains to be seen. As voters prepare to head to the polls, the stakes are high, and the world is watching.
