Improbable bets on break of Hong Kong dollar peg adding up

It’s what is known in the markets as a “tail risk”: a highly unlikely scenario in which Hong Kong’s currency peg suddenly snaps. Yet market pricing suggests bets on such a shock are building in the hedge fund world, and some traders say it makes a lot of sense.

Dollar edges up as Fed’s Waller cautions on inflation

The U.S. dollar steadied on Monday amid fading expectations of a less aggressive Federal Reserve interest rate hike after Governor Christopher Waller said the central bank was not softening its fight against inflation.

Oil prices edge down, recession fears back in focus

Oil prices fell on Friday amid recession fears and a stronger U.S. dollar, though losses were capped by supply concerns after Moscow’s new mobilisation campaign in its war with Ukraine and an apparent deadlock in talks on reviving the Iran nuclear deal.

Oil rises on prospect of OPEC+ supply cut

Oil rose on Monday, extending last week’s gain, as potential OPEC+ output cuts and conflict in Libya helped to offset a strong U.S. dollar and a dire outlook for U.S. growth.