Israel’s Lebanon Incursion Exposes US Influence Decline Amid Rising Tensions
The recent ground incursion by Israel into Lebanon has underlined a stark reality: the once-dominant United States finds itself unable to rein in its closest ally in the Middle East, or to meaningfully influence other key players in an escalating regional conflict. As Israel advances against Hezbollah in Lebanon, defying American calls for restraint, the US appears increasingly sidelined in a crisis with major global ramifications.
Israel’s Military Action and US Restraint
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government has proceeded with its military offensive against Hezbollah despite weeks of diplomatic pressure from Washington. On Monday, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) escalated their military campaign with what they called a “limited ground operation” into Lebanon. This move followed repeated pleas from the Biden administration for Israel to exercise restraint and calls for de-escalation.
President Joe Biden’s response to Israeli military raids has revealed a significant disconnect between US and Israeli leadership. While Biden recently called for a ceasefire, Israel’s continued military actions demonstrate that Netanyahu is not inclined to heed these calls. The Israeli prime minister’s recent broadcast, in which he warned Iranians that “there is nowhere in the Middle East Israel cannot reach,” serves as a testament to his defiance of both US and international appeals for peace.
A Shift in US-Israel Relations?
The growing rift between the US and Israel has serious implications, not only for regional stability but also for the strategic relationship that has long underpinned US foreign policy in the Middle East. Historically, the US has been Israel’s primary backer, offering financial, military, and diplomatic support. However, Israel’s ongoing actions have repeatedly undermined the Biden administration’s diplomatic efforts, revealing a power imbalance in which the US seems unable to rein in its ally’s unilateral decisions.
Patterns of Defiance: Israel’s Bold Actions
Israel’s apparent disregard for US diplomacy isn’t new. This pattern of Israeli action—where Netanyahu acts first and consults the US later—has only become more pronounced since the October 7 Hamas attacks on Israel, which killed about 1,200 people and led to the pounding of Gaza and now Hezbollah positions in Lebanon.
A key example came with Israel’s airstrike on Friday that killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. The US was not informed beforehand, even though the strike’s ramifications were bound to affect global politics. This disregard for coordination underscores a recurring theme: Netanyahu’s government is willing to push ahead with military operations despite American protests, further diminishing the appearance of US leadership in the Middle East.
The Impact on US Diplomacy
For the Biden administration, this situation is not just a diplomatic embarrassment—it’s also a blow to the perceived power of the US on the world stage. Every time an American president is publicly ignored, there is a loss of credibility. Biden, who entered office as a self-proclaimed foreign policy expert, now faces the possibility of leaving the White House with a raging Middle East conflict as part of his legacy.
Biden’s Political Calculations
Netanyahu has long understood the political nuances of US-Israel relations, and he seems to be using Biden’s instinctive support for Israel to his advantage. The Biden administration continues to provide security guarantees for Israel, most notably when the US and its allies repelled an Iranian missile and drone attack against Israel earlier this year. This was a retaliation for an Israeli strike in Syria that had targeted Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officers.
Biden’s reluctance to cut off military supplies to Israel, even as tensions rise, shows the extent of Netanyahu’s leverage. Any such action could have massive political consequences in the US, especially with the 2024 presidential election looming. Netanyahu likely realizes that pushing Biden too far risks alienating moderate voters and potentially handing a victory to his Republican rivals.
The US’s Widening Concerns
The US has broader concerns about the humanitarian toll in the region. As civilian casualties continue to rise in Gaza and Lebanon, Washington’s attempts to push for a ceasefire have been met with silence. Israeli military operations have wiped out senior Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, leading Netanyahu to believe that he is winning, and thus making him reluctant to stop.
However, US officials are worried that short-term military gains could turn into long-term losses. For Israel, the ongoing operations might appear successful in eliminating immediate threats, but for the US, these victories may only lead to further instability. The deaths of thousands of civilians and the prospect of a regional war stretching across multiple countries could have disastrous economic and strategic consequences.
Global Implications
The economic impact of Israel’s actions is already being felt. Attacks on shipping lanes in the Red Sea by Iran-backed Houthi rebels have resulted in US naval forces being pulled into the conflict. The disruptions to global trade and shipping routes may worsen as the conflict escalates, further eroding confidence in the US’s ability to act as a stabilizing force.
If Israel continues its assault on Gaza and Lebanon, the likelihood of a full-blown regional war increases, with Iran likely to become directly involved. The consequences of such a war would be catastrophic, not only for the region but for global markets and US strategic goals.
A Verdict on US-Israel Relations
Ultimately, Netanyahu’s actions underscore a hard truth: Israel will continue to pursue its military objectives regardless of US diplomatic efforts. The Biden administration’s inability to steer the course of events in the Middle East signals a decline in American influence over its closest ally. What was once a robust strategic relationship has become a one-sided affair, with Israel dictating terms and the US struggling to maintain relevance.
As Israel pushes forward, the Biden administration faces a critical question: how much longer can the US afford to support Israel unconditionally, especially when the cost to its global reputation, diplomatic standing, and regional influence continues to rise?
