How U.S. Elections Could Shape Global Climate Talks with China
As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, the world’s two largest carbon emitters—the United States and China—are at a pivotal moment in addressing climate change. With U.S. climate envoy John Podesta wrapping up critical talks in Beijing, energy experts are increasingly convinced that the outcome of the U.S. election could determine how ambitious China’s climate efforts will be over the coming years.
U.S.-China Climate Tensions Amidst Election Uncertainty
The United States and China are responsible for nearly 40% of global climate pollution, and the stakes are high in their climate discussions. Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries are now setting new targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 2035. Both nations’ commitments to curbing climate change are crucial for the planet’s future, especially with rising temperatures already causing extreme weather events and environmental disruptions.
Yet, political uncertainty in the U.S. looms large over these negotiations. As Podesta concluded three days of high-stakes talks, experts are wondering whether the current administration’s climate push will continue. If Vice President Kamala Harris wins the presidency, the U.S. is expected to continue its leadership in global climate negotiations, pressuring China and other nations to set bold targets. But a second Trump presidency could dramatically alter the landscape.
During his first term, Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Agreement, undermining global efforts to combat climate change. Many fear that a similar move would weaken international climate momentum and ease pressure on China to step up its actions. According to Kelly Sims Gallagher of Tufts University, a Trump victory would “deflate the momentum on global climate negotiations,” leaving the U.S. and China without strong leadership on the issue.
China’s Climate Plans and the Role of U.S. Policy
China has long resisted international pressure to accelerate its climate targets, emphasizing that it will pursue its carbon goals at its own pace. While the U.S. may exert diplomatic pressure, Chinese President Xi Jinping has made it clear that China will not yield to foreign demands. However, under the leadership of both countries, significant strides could be made in the fight against global warming.
China is currently the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, but it has also become a leader in renewable energy. The country is rapidly phasing out coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel, in favor of wind and solar energy. In 2023 alone, China installed more solar panels than the U.S. has in its entire history, and two-thirds of the world’s solar and wind projects under construction are happening in China. Despite this progress, experts believe that to keep global temperature rise within the 1.5°C threshold, China must cut its emissions by at least 30% by 2035.
While China is on track to plateau its emissions earlier than the previously pledged 2030, its economy is slowing, and that could affect its climate ambitions. A slowdown in economic growth often leads to reduced energy demand, which could drive down emissions. But without strong international pressure, especially from the U.S., China may not implement the sweeping changes needed to meet global climate goals.
U.S. Election Could Reshape Climate Leadership
The potential outcomes of the U.S. election could vastly alter the direction of U.S. climate policy and its global influence. A Kamala Harris presidency would likely continue to push China and other nations towards ambitious climate targets, building on the work initiated by President Biden’s administration. Harris has been a strong advocate for environmental policies, and experts believe her leadership would lead to continued pressure on China.
On the other hand, a Trump presidency could lead the U.S. to once again abandon the global climate stage, as it did during his first term. Trump has consistently mocked climate change science and promoted the burning of fossil fuels, the primary driver of global warming. His campaign has already criticized the Biden administration’s climate efforts, with spokesperson Karoline Leavitt claiming that “no one believes Kamala Harris is tough enough to get Beijing to lower their emissions.”
Impacts on Global Climate Talks
The broader implications of U.S. electoral outcomes on global climate diplomacy cannot be overstated. If the U.S. pulls back on its commitments, China may see less incentive to engage in ambitious climate policies. This, in turn, could affect global negotiations under the Paris Agreement and hinder the world’s ability to keep global temperatures from rising above dangerous levels.
While China has made strides in reducing emissions and ramping up renewable energy, its overall emissions remain high, and further international cooperation is critical. According to energy experts, if the U.S. is not seen as a reliable partner in climate negotiations, China may feel less compelled to act swiftly, possibly opting for a less aggressive climate strategy.
A Trump victory could shift the dynamics of global climate leadership. China might even attempt to fill the void left by the U.S. if it exits the Paris Agreement again. However, as Yao Zhe, Greenpeace East Asia’s global policy adviser, points out, “the U.S. election will inevitably have an impact on China’s consideration.” But whether China takes on a leadership role or scales back its efforts will depend on how the U.S. election unfolds.
The Future of Climate Collaboration
As the world grapples with the consequences of climate change, the actions of the U.S. and China will be pivotal in shaping global outcomes. The 2024 U.S. presidential election stands as a major factor influencing not only U.S. climate policy but also China’s future commitments to reducing greenhouse gases.
In the coming months, international attention will be on the U.S. election and its potential ramifications on climate diplomacy. The stakes couldn’t be higher: the global community must continue to work together to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, and strong leadership from the U.S. is crucial in these efforts.
Ultimately, the U.S. election will have far-reaching implications for global climate negotiations. A Harris administration could keep the pressure on China to adopt more aggressive climate policies, while a Trump presidency might lead to a significant retreat from international commitments. Whatever the outcome, the future of U.S.-China climate collaboration remains uncertain, and the world will be watching closely.
