Land prices set to fall or off-plan prices to rise as 2026 becomes pivotal year for Dubai real estate

Firas Al Msaddi forecasts fewer new launches as handovers rise and pressure builds on developer economics

Dubai, UAE, 6^th February 2026: Land prices will need to adjust or off-plan prices will rise as 2026 shapes up to be a decisive year for Dubai’s real estate market, according to one of the city’s leading property experts.

Firas Al Msaddi, CEO of fäm Properties, expects a clear reduction in new project launches this year, alongside a rise in completed homes entering the market, as developers face growing pressure on profitability and cash flow.

“Land prices in Dubai are at historic highs, and developer profitability depends far more on how quickly units sell than on headline margins,” said Al Msaddi. “Sales velocity is becoming the key constraint.”

While buyer protections remain strong, Al Msaddi noted that they do not insulate developers from financial pressure. “Escrow accounts protect buyers, but they do not guarantee developer returns,” he said. 

“When sales slow, cash flows tighten, returns get squeezed, and developers naturally become more selective about launching new projects.”

This sets up what he describes as the central question facing the market in 2026 – whether land prices adjust to restore commercial viability at current off-plan pricing levels, or off-plan prices rise further to justify today’s land values.

“There are two sustainable outcomes,” he said. “If land prices adjust, launch feasibility improves, end prices stabilise and transaction volumes return gradually. 

“If land prices remain elevated, off-plan prices must rise, product quality and differentiation become critical, and only the strongest locations and developers will succeed.”

What is unlikely, he added, is a prolonged period where land prices remain high, sale prices stay flat, and volumes remain elevated, as markets do not sustain that kind of imbalance for long.

Dubai has historically absorbed around 35,000 ready homes per year in balanced market conditions. In 2026, however, Al Msaddi expects handovers to rise to between 40,000 and 50,000 units as projects already well advanced in construction reach completion.

“This doesn’t point to a price correction,” he said. “What it means is slower selling times, flatter prices, and tighter margins. The impact is felt by developers first, not end users.”

As a result, Al Msaddi expects a material reduction in new project launches in 2026 compared to 2025, not because demand has disappeared, but because launching projects has become harder to justify financially. 

To date, launches are 47% down on the same period last year, and while it’s too early to assess the longer-term effect this year, he sees an inevitable annual drop in unveilings, resulting in less supply, while demand remains healthy.  

Dubai currently has close to one million freehold ready homes, most of which are occupied and trading within a stable market, and there is no sign of persistent vacancy pressure or widespread forced selling.

With no structural problem in the ready-home segment, Al Msaddi sees the real pressure lying in the fact that roughly 500,000 homes are under construction, the largest pipeline Dubai has ever carried at one time.

“Most of this supply is already sold,” he said. “The key issue is how and when investors sell and move their money out.”